kens*ten: a political blog

Posts Tagged ‘Nevada

Is It Time to Bury Harry?

Does Harry have a Prayer?

The Nevada US Senate race between Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican state legislator Sharon Angle is very close. Most of the elite election prognosticators categorize this race as a “toss up”.

Reid and Angle met in their one and only debate. And, judging from the reviews of left-leaning pundits, Reid just may be toast.

John Ralston of the Las Vegas Sun wrote:

Sharron Angle won The Big Debate. Angle won because she looked relatively credible, appearing not to be the Wicked Witch of the West (Christine O’Donnell is the good witch of the Tea Party) and scoring many more rhetorical points. And she won because Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid looked as if he could barely stay on a linear argument, abruptly switching gears and failing to effectively parry or thrust.

T. A. Frank of The New Republic whined:

I could go on with my laments about Reid’s performance—about how he fumbled an answer on Social Security, about how he picked Antonin Scalia and Byron “Whizzer” White as particular Supreme Court favorites, about how he couldn’t find his closing statement and wound up shuffling through his papers and then reading something that didn’t really work anyway. But we’re all busy people. No, let’s not dwell on the past…

Taegan Goddard of CQ’s Political Wire posted:

It’s hard to paint your opponent as not ready for primetime if you don’t come across looking much better than she did… Reid also slipped into ‘Washington-speak’ time and time again. Perhaps the worst moment for him: his shuffling around for notes for his closing statement.

Reid’s congressional co-conspirator, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA/8), resides in a very safe district — centered on super-liberal San Francisco. Pelosi will coast through her re-election race.

However, Reid’s term expires at a particularly bad time for him. Reid has to run for re-election in a state with 14.2% unemployment — the  highest in the nation. And, Reid has been front and center in ramming through the most odious components of the Obama economic agenda.

This makes Harry Reid the national “poster boy” for a midterm referendum on the Obama presidency. That infamy channeled over $14 million to Angle’s campaign to oust Reid… in just three months!.

Nevadans will decide if this is the final chapter in the Harry Reid saga. But, right now it appears Reid’s re-election hope is living on a prayer (cue Bon Jovi). But as Garth Brooks sang, “Some of God’s greatest gifts are unanswered prayers.”

© 2010 by kens*ten. All rights reserved.

Bon Jovi / “Livin’ on a Prayer”

Garth Brooks / “Unanswered Prayers”

Advertisements

Red States to Gain House Seats, Electoral Votes for 2012

Red States Rising

The United States Constitution mandates a national census every ten years.  The reason: the apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives among the various states.  This redistribution is based on population.  As states gain or lose population in proportion to the other states, their respective shares of the 435 House seats changes.

A review of preliminary 2010 Census data by Election Data Services (EDS) points toward a Republican advantage in the 2012 election.  The Census Bureau releases their official report in late December.

EDS projections suggest gains by “Red States” such as Texas (+4), Florida (+2), Arizona (+1), Georgia (+1), South Carolina (+1) and Utah (+1). “Swing State” Nevada and “Blue State” Washington also may gain one seat each.

When some states gain, other states must lose.  The brunt of the lost seats will occur in Blue States: New York (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), New Jersey (-1) and Pennsylvania (-1).  Swing States Ohio (-2) and Missouri (-1) are expected to lose seats along with Red State Louisiana (-1).

The net results: Red States +9, Blue States -7 and Swing States -2.

The impact these gains and losses will have on the House in 2012 is more problematic.  Each state is responsible for dividing their geographic area into districts of nearly exact population.  The ensuing re-districting battles — especially in states losing one or more seats — will largely hinge on which party controls the state legislature.  The vast majority of states are holding state legislative elections in November. With the GOP riding a nationwide wave of frustration, they are poised to capture many legislatures from the Democrats. When the GOP lacks a majority, Republican governors can often use the threat of veto to leverage a more beneficial map.  But, much will depend on local political conditions.

As the number of Electoral Votes per state is the sum of its House seats plus two (for their Senators), this reapportionment makes it a little easier for the GOP presidential candidate to reach the 270-EV majority.  Assuming they run a candidate that can win in 2012.

© 2010 by kens*ten. All rights reserved.

LVRJ: Obamanomics Sucks

President Obama was in Las Vegas today shilling… er, campaigning… for US Senator Harry Reid (D-NV).  The Las Vegas Review Journal uses the president’s visit as an opportunity to take him to task for his economic policies. 

The newspaper’s lead editorial is entitled “Welcome Back, Mr President: Your Economic Policies Suck”.

The editors describe a litany of terrible Obama Administration policies and the havoc they have wrought on Las Vegas — and the nation. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Written by kensten

07/09/2010 at 5:00 pm