kens*ten: a political blog

Gallup Finally Discovers GOP has Big Lead

I Feel the Earth Move Under My Feet

Gallup released a new House “generic ballot” poll which will give Democrat leaders indigestion.

The result which was widely-reported showed the Republicans with a small 46-43 lead over Democrats.  This within-the-margin-of-error lead is meant to keep liberal activists and base voters from reaching for the raor blades. No doubt if will give hope to the more desperate liberals.

But, as the saying goes: The devil is in the details.

The 46-43 GOP lead is among “registered voters”. That’s only slightly better than asking everyone over age 18 the same question.

When “likely voters” are screened the results skew significantly… towards the Republicans.

Survey respondents were asked seven questions to determine how likely they are to actually vote.  Based on these answers, Gallup then ranked the respondents and tallied the results again assuming a 40% and a 50% voter turnout rate.  These figures correspond to a “low” and “high” historical midterm election turnout.

Under the “low turnout” scenario (40%) the Republicans grab a monster-sized eighteen percent (56-38) lead.  But, the Republican margin drops to 53-40 under the “high turnout” scenario.  Note in all three results, the Dems stay in the same narrow range of 38-43%.

Either way, it’s a blowout.  The real question then is how big will the Red Tsunami rise.

A thirteen-point gap could swing over seventy House seats.  An eighteen-percent margin nears the potential Dick Morris 100-seat earthquake.

Of course, those “likely voters” still have to vote.

© 2010 by kens*ten. All rights reserved.

Carole King / I Feel the Earth Move

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Written by kensten

10/04/2010 at 11:18 pm

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