kens*ten: a political blog

Painting the Senate Red

Warning: Red Tsunami Approaching

Might the GOP Wave turn into the “Red Tsunami”? Some pundits and political insiders now think the Republicans have a realistic shot at capturing both houses of Congress.

What conventional wisdom termed highly unlikely a few months ago is now plausible. For months, media pundits — right and left –have been predicting the Democrats will lose the House of Representatives. They have varied only in the scope of the beatdown. But, a Senate takeover was seen as just not possible.

Yes, it is true, anything can — and usually does — happen in politics. An unforeseen or planned event (October Surprise anyone?) could drastically change the political landscape. And, Labor Day is traditionally seen as “Opening Day” for the political season. So, it is also possible that as the more lackadaisical observers begin following current events, poll numbers could shift.

But, even with those caveats — It’s looking pretty darn good for GOP Senate candidates.

Jay Cost at The Weekly Standard thinks the GOP will take 8 net seats in the Senate. That would leave the Democrats with a slim 51-49 majority. But, Cost also thinks the polls are more likely to tilt more towards the GOP by Election Day.

Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics Crystal Ball puts the GOP at net 8 or 9 Senate seats. Sabato’s analysis included the following statement:

The inescapable conclusion is that the Senate is on the bubble, with only a slight lean at Labor Day toward Democratic retention.

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics agrees with the +8 gain for Republicans — right now. He thinks 2010 could be bigger than 1994… perhaps even of the magnitude of the 1932 Democrat sweep. Trende reads the, er… trends… as:

…pointing to a massive GOP blowout, and they will not be changing between now and November.

Sixty days ago, contemplating a GOP takeover of the Senate was an exercise in self-delusion. Today, it’s on the cusp of becoming reality.

© 2010 by kens*ten. All rights reserved.

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Written by kensten

09/12/2010 at 5:15 pm

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