kens*ten: a political blog

Blue State Blues

Nationwide the polls portend bad news for Democrats in US House races.  Some pundits are currently projecting GOP gains of as many as 70 seats.  This is widely known.

What is less well known are the harbingers of doom for Democrat gubernatorial candidates.  How bad could it be?

University of Virginia professor and liberal media go-to guy Larry Sabato gives an indication.  His “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” weblog currently projects a GOP pickup of 6 or 7 executive mansions.  But, you have to read between the lines of his analysis to see the true picture.

In his state-by-state summary, Sabato lists 15 safe to marginal advantage Blue States as “Toss Up” or “Leans R”, to wit:

Toss Ups – California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, and Vermont.

Leans R – Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

When California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Oregon and Vermont are “Toss Ups” then it is obvious the Democrats have problems.  But, when Michigan and Pennsylvania are “Leans R”, then they’ve got major league trouble.

The Democrat candidates in some of these Blue States may still pull their states out of the fire.  But, if the GOP win in states like California, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania or Vermont, that’s electoral Armageddon for Democrats.

Why?  Because all of these states will be redistricting their congressional and state legislative districts in 2011.  And, with a Republican in the Governor’s chair, the GOP has a much better chance of drawing a map that is conducive to their candidates.

These Governor races may have an impact felt for the next decade.  They may be the real story to watch on November 2nd.


© 2010 by kensten. All rights reserved.


Written by kensten

07/08/2010 at 1:36 am

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